Monday, April 15, 2013

Recommended Reading

Technical Analysis Plain and Simple 
Excellent overview of the whole idea of technical analysis. Covers a wide range of topics with enough depth for beginners to become proficient
http://www.amazon.com/Technical-Analysis-Plain-Simple-Charting/dp/0137042019/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1366068008&sr=8-1&keywords=technical+analysis+plain+and+simple

Getting Started in Candlestick Charting
Good overview of candlesticks as well as individual candlestick meanings (doji, etc.) and candlestick patterns. Focuses on reversal patterns. Also includes some trend analysis, gaps, and volume correlations. Wish it also covered continuation patterns, but still worth the read.
http://www.amazon.com/Getting-Started-Candlestick-Charting-Logan/dp/0470182008/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1366068180&sr=1-1&keywords=getting+started+in+candlestick+charting

How to Make Money in Stocks
If you're serious about combining fundamentals and technicals, get this book - if for no other reason that it comes with a one month trial subscription to http://www.investors.com and eIBD (which is roughly the price of the book). So you essentially get the book for free. And, even if you don't use the CAN SLIM system, the book is a great reference for bases and patterns.
http://www.amazon.com/Money-Stocks-Complete-Investing-System/dp/0071752110/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1366068555&sr=1-2&keywords=how+to+make+money+in+stocks

Trading for a Living
Excellent book on the psychology of trading and more.  My favorite parts are the psychological parts, but he also covers practical and useful technical analysis.  Highly, highly, recommended.

Note that if you order through Amazon from Elder, Dr. Elder will autograph the book for you.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0471592242/ref=oh_details_o00_s00_i00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Options as a Strategic Investment
The cover says it very well - The most comprehensive guide to options investing on the market.  While I personally would have arranged the content differently, all of the subjects and strategies are covered - in depth.  Also, this book makes a great companion to Market Wizards - because as you read through Market Wizards (especially as someone who's new to trading) the author glosses over strategies and pretty much assumes the reader knows what they are.  Well, if you don't, this book will fill you in.
http://www.amazon.com/Options-Strategic-Investment-Lawrence-McMillan/dp/0735204659/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1371952241&sr=8-1&keywords=options+as+a+strategic+investment

Technical Analysis for the Rest of Us
The only redeeming value in this book is that it does a decent job of reviewing bases/patterns.  Well, that, and it was only $4.00.  The first book in this post is a far better value.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0071467211/ref=oh_details_o01_s00_i00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

A Beginner's Guide to Short-Term Trading: Maximize Your Profits in 3 Days to 3 Weeks
Excellent book, and highly recommended.  For those familiar with the NeUventure on Wall Street program, this book is an excellent review of many of the principles covered in Seminar I.  Although some of the website references are a little out of date, the book overall is a great refresher on the basics of trading rather than investing.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1598695800/ref=oh_details_o00_s00_i00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Thoughts for 12 April 2013

11 April 2013

AMZN (below) is making a W today. If it closes above the midpoint on higher volume, it could resume its previous up trend. IBD composite 33, industry group 75/197, so not bad for down plays.


CF (below) looks like it's continuing to bounce down off the 20-day. Might still be good for puts, or a bear call spread selling the $195. IBD composite 29, industry group 195/197, so great for down plays.


LNKD (below) looks like it's resume the roll from $172 to $182. May have bounced down today, so it may be good for quick puts tomorrow. IBD composite 97, industry group 94/197, so a strong company, but weak group. LNKD is #1 in the industry group.



V (below) is back in its old channel from almost a year ago. The 50-day is an incredibly strong support for V. Bull puts should be a good strategy, as long as you have the protection of the 50-day. Calls should also work well. IBD composite 91, industry group 137/197. V is #4 in the industry group.


I still think CAT (below) looks like AAPL did, starting back in September 2012. Just retraced to the 20-day and is bouncing down, so should be good for puts or bear calls. IBD composite 30, industry group 99/197, so good for down plays.


LVS (below) is in a good little rolling pattern, about $51 to $55.50. Just bounced down, so with negative market tone, should be good for puts (I'm in some). IBD composite 95, industry group 27/197, so a strong company and strong group. LVS is #4 in the group.


ANF (below) is doing a nice little $5 roll, from $45 to $50. Right at resistance now, so if it bounces down with negative market tone, should be good for puts (not in this, but watching it). IBD composite 63, industry group 164/197, so good for down plays.


FOSL (below) moved down into an old range of $92 to $100. If it bounces down off the 50-day (right at resistance), it should be good for puts (not in this, but watching it). IBD composite 71, industry group 143/197, so not a super strong company or industry group - makes sense that it's going sideways.


UHS (below) might be making a H&S pattern with a kiss goodbye (kiss today, goodbye tomorrow). IBD composite 96, industry group 10/197, so a very strong group and strong company. However, HMA had a negative preview, and it affected the whole industry group (http://news.investors.com/business/040913-651311-hma-earnings-admissions-warning-hospital-stocks-fall.htm).


LEN (below) looks like it could be in a slight up trend $6-$7 roll from $37 to $44. Currently making the down move, so not at a good buy point, but a pretty roll (I'm currently in LEN puts). IBD composite 72, industry group 107/197, so should be decent for down plays.



Thursday, April 4, 2013

Why you shouldn't pay attention to upgrades or downgrades...

2 April 2013 - Research firm Robert W. Baird upgrades FFIV from neutral to outperform.

The stock, in a down-trend for about two months, had just bounced down off the 10-day the day before. After this upgrade, the stock crossed the 10-day, then doji'd right between the 10- and 20-day.


The next day, it opened right under the 20, nearly hit the 50-day, and settled just under the 20-day, up from the day before.  (This is the day I stopped out of my puts - not just because it was going against me, but because the movement was reinforced by the upgrade. If there hadn't been the upgrade, I would have held them, because it hadn't violated the 20-day. Shoulda, shoulda....)

On the 4th, after the close, FFIV issued preliminary results, which missed expectations.  The shares fell $14 (16%) after hours (and my puts would have made a small fortune).

I wonder how many shared Robert W. Baird unloaded during that move up from $88 to $92.50 before it dropped to $76???