Why you shouldn't pay attention to upgrades or downgrades...

2 April 2013 - Research firm Robert W. Baird upgrades FFIV from neutral to outperform.

The stock, in a down-trend for about two months, had just bounced down off the 10-day the day before. After this upgrade, the stock crossed the 10-day, then doji'd right between the 10- and 20-day.

The next day, it opened right under the 20, nearly hit the 50-day, and settled just under the 20-day, up from the day before.  (This is the day I stopped out of my puts - not just because it was going against me, but because the movement was reinforced by the upgrade. If there hadn't been the upgrade, I would have held them, because it hadn't violated the 20-day. Shoulda, shoulda....)

On the 4th, after the close, FFIV issued preliminary results, which missed expectations.  The shares fell $14 (16%) after hours (and my puts would have made a small fortune).

I wonder how many shared Robert W. Baird unloaded during that move up from $88 to $92.50 before it dropped to $76???