Friday, November 8, 2013
Thursday, October 24, 2013
Candlesticks & T-Line Trading
Stephen Bigalow has a good series on candlesticks and how to use them in trading. The video below is a good overview of how to use the "T-Line" (the "trigger" line - which is the 8-day EMA) as a good confirmation line of candlestick patterns and signals.
Saturday, July 13, 2013
Monday, April 15, 2013
Recommended Reading
Excellent overview of the whole idea of technical analysis. Covers a wide range of topics with enough depth for beginners to become proficient
http://www.amazon.com/Technical-Analysis-Plain-Simple-Charting/dp/0137042019/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1366068008&sr=8-1&keywords=technical+analysis+plain+and+simple
Good overview of candlesticks as well as individual candlestick meanings (doji, etc.) and candlestick patterns. Focuses on reversal patterns. Also includes some trend analysis, gaps, and volume correlations. Wish it also covered continuation patterns, but still worth the read.
http://www.amazon.com/Getting-Started-Candlestick-Charting-Logan/dp/0470182008/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1366068180&sr=1-1&keywords=getting+started+in+candlestick+charting
If you're serious about combining fundamentals and technicals, get this book - if for no other reason that it comes with a one month trial subscription to http://www.investors.com and eIBD (which is roughly the price of the book). So you essentially get the book for free. And, even if you don't use the CAN SLIM system, the book is a great reference for bases and patterns.
http://www.amazon.com/Money-Stocks-Complete-Investing-System/dp/0071752110/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1366068555&sr=1-2&keywords=how+to+make+money+in+stocks
Excellent book on the psychology of trading and more. My favorite parts are the psychological parts, but he also covers practical and useful technical analysis. Highly, highly, recommended.
Note that if you order through Amazon from Elder, Dr. Elder will autograph the book for you.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0471592242/ref=oh_details_o00_s00_i00?ie=UTF8&psc=1
The cover says it very well - The most comprehensive guide to options investing on the market. While I personally would have arranged the content differently, all of the subjects and strategies are covered - in depth. Also, this book makes a great companion to Market Wizards - because as you read through Market Wizards (especially as someone who's new to trading) the author glosses over strategies and pretty much assumes the reader knows what they are. Well, if you don't, this book will fill you in.
http://www.amazon.com/Options-Strategic-Investment-Lawrence-McMillan/dp/0735204659/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1371952241&sr=8-1&keywords=options+as+a+strategic+investment
The only redeeming value in this book is that it does a decent job of reviewing bases/patterns. Well, that, and it was only $4.00. The first book in this post is a far better value.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0071467211/ref=oh_details_o01_s00_i00?ie=UTF8&psc=1
Excellent book, and highly recommended. For those familiar with the NeUventure on Wall Street program, this book is an excellent review of many of the principles covered in Seminar I. Although some of the website references are a little out of date, the book overall is a great refresher on the basics of trading rather than investing.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1598695800/ref=oh_details_o00_s00_i00?ie=UTF8&psc=1
Thursday, April 11, 2013
Thoughts for 12 April 2013
11 April 2013
AMZN (below) is making a W today. If it closes above the midpoint on higher volume, it could resume its previous up trend. IBD composite 33, industry group 75/197, so not bad for down plays.
CF (below) looks like it's continuing to bounce down off the 20-day. Might still be good for puts, or a bear call spread selling the $195. IBD composite 29, industry group 195/197, so great for down plays.
LNKD (below) looks like it's resume the roll from $172 to $182. May have bounced down today, so it may be good for quick puts tomorrow. IBD composite 97, industry group 94/197, so a strong company, but weak group. LNKD is #1 in the industry group.
V (below) is back in its old channel from almost a year ago. The 50-day is an incredibly strong support for V. Bull puts should be a good strategy, as long as you have the protection of the 50-day. Calls should also work well. IBD composite 91, industry group 137/197. V is #4 in the industry group.
I still think CAT (below) looks like AAPL did, starting back in September 2012. Just retraced to the 20-day and is bouncing down, so should be good for puts or bear calls. IBD composite 30, industry group 99/197, so good for down plays.
FOSL (below) moved down into an old range of $92 to $100. If it bounces down off the 50-day (right at resistance), it should be good for puts (not in this, but watching it). IBD composite 71, industry group 143/197, so not a super strong company or industry group - makes sense that it's going sideways.
UHS (below) might be making a H&S pattern with a kiss goodbye (kiss today, goodbye tomorrow). IBD composite 96, industry group 10/197, so a very strong group and strong company. However, HMA had a negative preview, and it affected the whole industry group (http://news.investors.com/business/040913-651311-hma-earnings-admissions-warning-hospital-stocks-fall.htm).
LEN (below) looks like it could be in a slight up trend $6-$7 roll from $37 to $44. Currently making the down move, so not at a good buy point, but a pretty roll (I'm currently in LEN puts). IBD composite 72, industry group 107/197, so should be decent for down plays.
AMZN (below) is making a W today. If it closes above the midpoint on higher volume, it could resume its previous up trend. IBD composite 33, industry group 75/197, so not bad for down plays.
CF (below) looks like it's continuing to bounce down off the 20-day. Might still be good for puts, or a bear call spread selling the $195. IBD composite 29, industry group 195/197, so great for down plays.
LNKD (below) looks like it's resume the roll from $172 to $182. May have bounced down today, so it may be good for quick puts tomorrow. IBD composite 97, industry group 94/197, so a strong company, but weak group. LNKD is #1 in the industry group.
V (below) is back in its old channel from almost a year ago. The 50-day is an incredibly strong support for V. Bull puts should be a good strategy, as long as you have the protection of the 50-day. Calls should also work well. IBD composite 91, industry group 137/197. V is #4 in the industry group.
I still think CAT (below) looks like AAPL did, starting back in September 2012. Just retraced to the 20-day and is bouncing down, so should be good for puts or bear calls. IBD composite 30, industry group 99/197, so good for down plays.
LVS (below) is in a good little rolling pattern, about $51 to $55.50. Just bounced down, so with negative market tone, should be good for puts (I'm in some). IBD composite 95, industry group 27/197, so a strong company and strong group. LVS is #4 in the group.
ANF (below) is doing a nice little $5 roll, from $45 to $50. Right at resistance now, so if it bounces down with negative market tone, should be good for puts (not in this, but watching it). IBD composite 63, industry group 164/197, so good for down plays.
UHS (below) might be making a H&S pattern with a kiss goodbye (kiss today, goodbye tomorrow). IBD composite 96, industry group 10/197, so a very strong group and strong company. However, HMA had a negative preview, and it affected the whole industry group (http://news.investors.com/business/040913-651311-hma-earnings-admissions-warning-hospital-stocks-fall.htm).
LEN (below) looks like it could be in a slight up trend $6-$7 roll from $37 to $44. Currently making the down move, so not at a good buy point, but a pretty roll (I'm currently in LEN puts). IBD composite 72, industry group 107/197, so should be decent for down plays.
Thursday, April 4, 2013
Why you shouldn't pay attention to upgrades or downgrades...
2 April 2013 - Research firm Robert W. Baird upgrades FFIV from neutral to outperform.
The stock, in a down-trend for about two months, had just bounced down off the 10-day the day before. After this upgrade, the stock crossed the 10-day, then doji'd right between the 10- and 20-day.
The next day, it opened right under the 20, nearly hit the 50-day, and settled just under the 20-day, up from the day before. (This is the day I stopped out of my puts - not just because it was going against me, but because the movement was reinforced by the upgrade. If there hadn't been the upgrade, I would have held them, because it hadn't violated the 20-day. Shoulda, shoulda....)
On the 4th, after the close, FFIV issued preliminary results, which missed expectations. The shares fell $14 (16%) after hours (and my puts would have made a small fortune).
I wonder how many shared Robert W. Baird unloaded during that move up from $88 to $92.50 before it dropped to $76???
The stock, in a down-trend for about two months, had just bounced down off the 10-day the day before. After this upgrade, the stock crossed the 10-day, then doji'd right between the 10- and 20-day.
On the 4th, after the close, FFIV issued preliminary results, which missed expectations. The shares fell $14 (16%) after hours (and my puts would have made a small fortune).
I wonder how many shared Robert W. Baird unloaded during that move up from $88 to $92.50 before it dropped to $76???
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
Thoughts for 28 March 2013
GOOG looks like it's turning bearish. Down day today on higher volume. If it opens lower tomorrow, I'm comfortable doing a bear call, selling the $815 or $820.
PCLN looks like it's rolling $680 to $720. Bounced up off support today on good volume - even when the overall market wasn't as strong. If it can keep going up tomorrow, it might be worth a small play. It's in a weaker industry group (151/197), but it is #3 within that group (which is positive).
AMZN looks like it's rolling $255 to $275. Got above all three EMAs today, on slightly higher volume - all of which is good. It's half way through the channel, though, so it may not be good for options, but might be OK for a bull put, selling the $255 or $260. AMZN is not in a stronger industry group (about 50th percentile), and it's not in the top 10 within that group. But the pattern looks good, and it has decent institutional support.
FFIV looks like it's bouncing down off the 10, and closed close to it today. If it opens under the 10 and moves down, it should be good for a $5 move in a couple of days. FFIV is in one of the worst performing industry groups, it's #11 in that group, and it's under institutional distribution (all of which is good for puts).
CAT, to me, looks like AAPL did in October of last year. It's bouncing down off the 10, and could hit the 10 tomorrow (and bounce down). It's in a decent industry group (64/197), and it's #5 in that group (JOY is #4). It has a terrible accumulation/distribution rating, though, which is good for puts. Given the technicals, it may take a day to be at the right point. Everything else looks OK for puts.
COP looks like it may be making a cup and handle. It has an IBD composite of 23 and is in industry group 188 of 197 - so not at all positive for an up play. That said, it is a pretty pattern. :)
NKE looks like it's going to fill the gap. If so, that could be a $3.50 move on a $58 stock - not bad. Make sure it breaks out down through the gap line around $58.
PCLN looks like it's rolling $680 to $720. Bounced up off support today on good volume - even when the overall market wasn't as strong. If it can keep going up tomorrow, it might be worth a small play. It's in a weaker industry group (151/197), but it is #3 within that group (which is positive).
AMZN looks like it's rolling $255 to $275. Got above all three EMAs today, on slightly higher volume - all of which is good. It's half way through the channel, though, so it may not be good for options, but might be OK for a bull put, selling the $255 or $260. AMZN is not in a stronger industry group (about 50th percentile), and it's not in the top 10 within that group. But the pattern looks good, and it has decent institutional support.
FFIV looks like it's bouncing down off the 10, and closed close to it today. If it opens under the 10 and moves down, it should be good for a $5 move in a couple of days. FFIV is in one of the worst performing industry groups, it's #11 in that group, and it's under institutional distribution (all of which is good for puts).
CAT, to me, looks like AAPL did in October of last year. It's bouncing down off the 10, and could hit the 10 tomorrow (and bounce down). It's in a decent industry group (64/197), and it's #5 in that group (JOY is #4). It has a terrible accumulation/distribution rating, though, which is good for puts. Given the technicals, it may take a day to be at the right point. Everything else looks OK for puts.
COP looks like it may be making a cup and handle. It has an IBD composite of 23 and is in industry group 188 of 197 - so not at all positive for an up play. That said, it is a pretty pattern. :)
NKE looks like it's going to fill the gap. If so, that could be a $3.50 move on a $58 stock - not bad. Make sure it breaks out down through the gap line around $58.
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